Yesterday I considered the question of what civilisation would be like if nobody could do mathematics “as we know it”, which is one fairly minor suggestion for an answer to the Fermi Paradox of “where are all the aliens?”. Of course the simplest answer to this is that there aren’t any and probably haven’t ever been any, but there are also multitudinous other possibilities, many of which have interesting implications for us even if we never make contact with any. Yesterday, the fault was in ourselves, but what if the fault was in not our stars, but the stars? What if the issue is not that other intelligent life forms lack a capacity we do have, but that there is a realistic, external but still conceptual problem which prevents anyone from getting out there into interstellar space in a reasonable period of time? What if, so to speak, science “runs out”?
Even if there are no aliens, this possibility is still important. It’s entirely possible that they are in fact completely absent but science will still stop, and that would be a major issue. It would be rather like the way Moore’s Law has apparently run up against the buffers due to thermal noise and electron tunnelling. Ever since 1961, when the first integrated circuit was invented, there’s been an approximate doubling of transistors per unit area of silicon (or germanium of course) every two years or so, which may be partly driven by commercial considerations. However, as they get smaller, the probability of an electron on one side of a barrier teleporting to the other and thereby interfering with the operation of transistors increases. In 2002, it was theorised that the law would break down by the end of the decade due to Johnson-Nyquist noise, which is the disturbance of electrical signals due to the vibration of atoms and molecules tending to drown out weak signals, which is what nanoscale computing processes amount to. It isn’t clear whether Moore’s Law has stopped operating or not because if it does, it would have consequences for IT companies and therefore their profitability and share values, so the difficulty in ascertaining whether it has is a good example of how capitalism distorts processes and research which would ideally operate in a more neutral environment, and there’s also a tendency for people to suppose that scientific change will not persist indefinitely because of being “set in their ways” as it were, so it’s hard to tell if it actually has stopped happening. It’s been forecast, in a possibly rather sensationalist way, that once Moore’s Law does stop, there will be a major economic recession or depression and complete social chaos resulting from the inability of IT companies to make enough money to continue, but I don’t really know about that. It seems like catastrophising.
More widely, there are areas of “crisis”, to be sensationalist myself for a moment, in science, particularly in physics but as I’ve mentioned previously also perhaps in chemistry. The Moore’s Law analogy is imperfect because it isn’t pure scientific discovery but the application of science to technology where it can be established that a particular technique for manufacturing transistors has a lower size limit. This is actually a successful prediction made by physics rather than the end of a scientific road. However, the consequences may be similar in some ways because it means, for example, that technological solutions relying on microminiaturisation of digital electronics would have to change or be solved in a different way, which is of course what quantum computers are for. The end of science is somewhat different, and can be considered in two ways.
The first of these is that the means of testing hypotheses may outgrow human ability to do so. For instance, one possible time travel technique involves an infinitely long cylinder of black holes but there is no way to build such a cylinder as far as can be seen, particularly if the Universe is spatially finite. Another example is the increasing size and energy required to build particle colliders. The point may come when the only way to test an hypothesis of this kind would be to construct a collider in space, and right now we can’t do this and probably never will be able to. There would be an extra special “gotcha” if it turned out that in order to test a particular hypothesis involving space travel it would be necessary to have the engines built on those principles in the first place to get to a place where it could be falsified.
Another way it might happen is that there could be two or more equally valid theories which fit all the data and are equally parsimonious and there is no way of choosing among them. It kind of makes sense to choose a simpler theory, but on this level it becomes an æsthetic choice rather than a rational one because nothing will happen as a result of one theory being true but not the other. If all the data means all the observable data, this is the impasse in which science will find itself.
It also seems to be very difficult to arrive at a theory of quantum gravity. Relativity and quantum physics are at loggerheads with each other and there seems to be no sign of resolution. There “ought to be” some kind of underlying explanation for the two both being true, but it doesn’t seem to be happening. Every force except gravity is explained using the idea that particles carry the message of that force, such as photons for electromagnetism and gluons for the strong nuclear force, but gravity is explained using the idea that mass distorts space instead, meaning that gravity isn’t really a force at all. I’ve often wondered why they don’t try to go the other way and use the concept of higher dimensions to explain the other forces instead of using particles, but they didn’t and I presume there’s a good reason for that. It wouldn’t explain the weak force I suppose. However, there does seem to be a geometrical element in the weak force because it can only convert between up and down quarks if their spin does not align with their direction of motion, so maybe. But so far as I know it’s never been tried this way round, which puzzles me. There’s something I don’t know.
There may also be a difference between science running out and our ability to understand it being exceeded. Already, quantum mechanics is said to be incomprehensible on some level, but is that due to merely human limitations or is it fundamentally mysterious? This is also an issue evoked with the mind-body problem, in that perhaps the reason we can’t seem to reconcile the existence of consciousness with anything we can observe is that the problem is just too hard for humans to grasp.
People often imagine the ability to build a space elevator, which is a cable reaching thousands of kilometres into space to geostationary orbit up and down which lifts can move, making it far easier to reach space, but there doesn’t appear to be a substance strong enough to support that on Earth, although it would be feasible on many other planets, moons and asteroids using existing technology. We might imagine it’s just round the corner, but maybe it isn’t. Likewise, another common idea is the Dyson sphere, actually acknowledged by Freeman Dyson himself as having originally been thought of by Olaf Stapledon, which encloses a sun in a solid sphere of extremely strong matter to exploit all of its energy, which again may not exist. And the obvious third idea is faster than light travel, which is generally taken to be impossible in any useful way. One way the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) could be conducted is to look for evidence of megastructures like Dyson spheres around stars, and in one case a few people believed they’d actually found one, but what if they turn out to be impossible? Dyson’s original idea was a swarm of space stations orbiting the Sun rather than a rigid body, which seems feasible, but an actual solid sphere seems much less so. Our plans of people in suspended animation or generation ships crossing the void, or spacecraft accelerated to almost the speed of light may all just be pipe dreams. Our lazy teenage boasts will be high precision ghosts, to quote Prefab Sprout. Something isn’t known to be possible until it’s actually done.
If non-baryonic dark matter exists, the beautiful symmetries of elementary particles which the Standard Model of physics has constructed do not include it. And despite my doubts, it may exist, and even if it doesn’t there’s an issue with explaining how galaxies rotate at the rate they do. However, at any point in the history of science there were probably gaps in knowledge which seemed unlikely to be filled, so I’m not sure things are any different today. It reminds me of the story about closing the US patent office in 1899 CE, which is apparently apocryphal, because everything had been invented. However, there is also the claim that technological progress is slowing down rather than accelerating, because the changes wrought in society by the immediate aftermath of the Industrial Revolution were much larger than what has happened more recently. At the end of the nineteenth century, there seemed to be just two unresolved problems in physics: the ultraviolet catastrophe and the detection of the luminiferous æther. These two problems ended up turning physics completely upside down. Now it may be possible to explain any kind of observation, with the rather major exceptions which Constructor Theory tries to address but these seem to be qualitatively different. The incompleteness of these theories, such as the Uncertainty Principle and the apparent impossibility of reconciling relativity with quantum mechanics, could still be permanent because of the difficulty of testing these theories. Dark matter would also fall under this heading, or rather, the discrepancy in the speed of galactic movement and rotation does.
This is primarily about physics of course, because there’s a strong tendency to think everything can be reduced to it, but biocentrism is another possible approach, although how far that can be taken is another question. Also, this is the “trajectory and particles” version of physics rather than something like constructor theory, and I’m not sure what bearing that has on things. Cosmology faces a crisis right now as well because two different precise and apparently reliable methods of measuring the rate of expansion of the Universe give two different results. Though I could go on finding holes, which may well end up being plugged, I want to move on to the question of what happens if science “stops”.
The Singularity is a well-known idea, described as “the Rapture for nerds”. It’s based on the perceived trend that scientific and technological progress accelerate exponentially until they are practically a vertical line, usually understood to be the point at which artificial intelligence goes off the IQ scale through being able to redesign itself. Things like that have happened to some extent. For instance, AlphaGo played the board game Go (AKA Weichi, 围棋) and became the best 围棋 player in the world shortly after, and was followed by AlphaGo Zero, which only played games with itself to start with and still became better than any human player of the game. This was a game previously considered impossible to computerise due to the fact that each move had hundreds of possible options, unlike chess with its couple of dozen or fewer, meaning that the game tree would branch vastly very early on. But the Singularity was first named, by Ray Kurzweil, two and a half dozen years ago now, and before that the SF writer Murray Leinster based a story on the idea in 1946, and it hasn’t happened. Of course a lot of other things have been predicted far in advance which have in fact come to pass in the end, but many are sceptical. The usual scenario involves transhumanism or AI, so to an extent it seems to depend on Moore’s Law in the latter case although quantum computing may far exceed that, but for it to happen regardless of the nature of the intelligence which drove it, genuine limits to science might still be expected to prevent it from happening in the way people imagine. For this reason, the perceived unending exponential growth in scientific progress and associated technological change could be more like a sigmoid graph:
I can’t relabel this graph, so I should explain that this is supposed to represent technological and scientific progress up to the Singularity, which occurs where the Y-axis reads zero.
There’s a difference between science and technology of course. It’s notable, for example, that the development of new drugs usually seems to involve tinkering with the molecular structure of old drugs to alter their function rather than using novel compounds, and there seems to be excessive reliance in digital electronics on a wide variety of relatively scarce elements rather than the use of easily obtained common ones in new ways. And the thing is, in both those cases we do know it’s often possible to do things in other ways. For instance, antibacterial compounds and anti-inflammatories are potentially very varied, meaning for example that antibiotic resistance need not develop anything like as quickly as it does, even if they continue to be used irresponsibly in animal husbandry, and there are plenty of steps in the inflammatory process which can be modified without the use of either steroids or so-called non-steroidal anti-inflammatories, all of which are in fact cycloöygenase inhibitors, and there are biological solutions to problems such as touchscreen displays and information processing such as flatfish and cuttlefish camouflage which imply that there is another way to solve the problem without using rare earths or relatively uncommon transition metals. So the solutions are out there, unexploited, possibly because of capitalism. This would therefore mean that if the Singularity did take place, it might end up accelerating technological progress for quite a while through the replacement of current technology by something more sustainable and appropriate to the needs of the human race. Such areas of scientific research are somewhat neglected, meaning that in those particular directions the chances are we really have not run out of science. They could still, in fact, have implications for the likes of space travel and robotics, but it’s a very different kind of singularity than what Kurzweil and his friends seem to be imagining. It’s more like the Isley Brothers:
Having said that, I don’t want to come across as a Luddite or anti-intellectual. I appreciate the beauty of the likes of the Standard Model and other aspects of cutting edge physics and cosmology. I’m not sure they’re fundamental though, for various reasons. The advent of constructor theory, for example, shows that there may be other ways of thinking about physics than how it has been considered in recent centuries, whether or not it’s just a passing trend. Biocentrism is another way, although it has its own limits. This is the practice of considering biology as fundamental rather than physics. The issue of chemistry in this respect is more complex.
Returning to the initial reason this was mentioned, as a solution to the Fermi Paradox, it’s hard to imagine that this would actually make visiting other star systems technologically unfeasible. If we’re actually talking about human beings travelling to other star systems and either settling worlds or constructing artificial habitats to live in there, that doesn’t seem like it would be ruled out using existing tech. The Dædalus Project, for example, used a starship engine based on the regular detonation of nuclear bombs to accelerate a craft to a twelfth of the speed of light, though not with humans on board, and another option is a solar sail, either using sunlight alone or driven by a laser. Besides that, there is the possibility of using low doses of hydrogen sulphide to induce suspended animation, or keeping a well-sealed cyclical ecosystem going for generations while people travel the distances between the stars. There are plenty of reasons why these things won’t happen, but technology doesn’t seem to be a barrier at all here because methods of doing so have been on the drawing board since the 1970s. Something might come up of course, such as the maximum possible intensity of a laser beam or the possibility of causing brain damage in suspended animation, but it seems far-fetched that every possible technique for spreading through the Galaxy is ruled out unless somewhere out there in that other space of scientific theory there is some kind of perpetual motion-like or cosmic speed limit physical law which prevents intelligent life forms or machines from doing so.
All that said, the idea that science might run out is intriguing. It means that there could be a whole class of phenomena which are literally inexplicable. It also means humans, and for that matter any intelligent life form, are not so powerful as to be able to “conquer” the Cosmos, which is a salutory lesson in humility. It also solves another peculiarity that somehow we, who evolved on the savannah running away from predators, parenting and gathering nuts and berries for food and having the evolutionary adaptations to do so, have developed the capacity to understand the Universe, because in this scenario we actually haven’t.










